Monday, April 06, 2009

What If ....

The "what if" is more a prediction rather than an academic exercise. You may or may not agree, but my prediction is that at least two of the three, if not all three, of the by-elections at Bukit Selambau, Bukit Gantang and even possibly Batang Ai will be won by the Opposition. Now, if the prediction comes true, will it affect the local bourse which has just swung into mad bull territory???!!! Hmmm ... you guess la, your guess is as good as mine...

Now this prediction is meaningless if everybody already believe that is the case. However, if you look at the mainstream media and the people in cities, they have assumed (incorrectly) that BN will win at least 2 out of the 3 seats. Which is also why, everybody is so gung-ho joining in the mad bull market that has just awaken. The danger is the assumption in the market place - now, if that assumption is turned upside down, what will happen?

I have to state that my prediction is not because I am a big supporter of Pakatan or a big anti government voice. The prediction is based on my readings of the developments and the inside stories, rumblings in the streets of the towns. The prediction is very much like asking me to predict the result of the football match between Lazio and Osasuna, its a neutral assessment.

The Bukit Selambau is a goner because the mistake is in fielding an MIC candidate, full stop. Bukit Gantang, the RM1mn to Chinese schools is only a distraction. Nizar actually helped to get the geran tanah which was in the air for decades. It will be close in Bukit Gantang, but the Perak issue is simmering. Its about the Sultan and the people's wishes. Its not out in mainstream media, but most Perakians would have wanted another election to re-elect their leaders rather than being shafted with a coup de grace. The two bukits should be goners, ... Batang Ai, well, thats up in the air, did they get the Obama wave???

The other issue which I disagree is that many are saying the 3 by elections will be a litmus test on Najib as PM, come on, its so unfair. Its unfair to pin the whole thing on one person, it takes a lot more than that to piss people off. If BN loses the 3 by elections, Najib can still govern but he will have to govern with the mindset of the Opposition, he will have to govern as if he IS the Opposition, thats the only way to save the party - BN has to change or the people will change you, sooner or later.

The problem in underestimating the people's anger are manifold:

a) mainstream media casting a slanted view of the situation

b) city folks have no idea what is happening at these small towns

c) powers to be thought that the people should be pacified with the resignation of Badawi (well, the truth is most people think that Badawi is a nice guy but may not have been as effective as he can be, most people do not hate Badawi)

d) the public is not angry at Badawi per se, its the whole machinery

e) the release of the 13 from ISA, while welcomed, does not address the root of why people should be there in the first place, and none of the social concerns brought up by the protesters

Getting at the pulse of the public's anger, we all really just want 3 main things:

1) an independent, non corrupt and effective police force that enforces the rule of law without fear or favour
2) an independent judiciary, not open to interference from the government, that tries to uphold the law and seek out fairness and justice for all Malaysians

3) an effective, independent and powerful anti corruption commission that tackles all levels of corruption without fear and favour, with emphasis on the big deals

The people saw nothing being done to the three main issues, in fact these 3 issues have been tainted and worsened further over the past 12 months.
The wayang kulit has been shown many times and the people are fed up with the shadow dancing or is it the shadow dacing?!!

Once you have tackled the top 3 issues, then address the other pressing issues:

4) abolish ISA, its not necessary and it stifles freedom of speech, our existing laws are more than sufficient to deal with the bad hats, ISA hangs over the people like a kangaroo court ... without the court and the kangaroo, just the hanging judge
5) steps to
eradicate poverty for all Malaysians, I mean all
6) ban all political parties from holding any stakes in the media entities, open up publishing permits for anyone who wants to publish newspapers, it should be totally liberalised - our laws are there to curb "lies and half truths", when we have an independent judiciary, why do you have to fear the unknown?


Chairman Kaga said...

Buy on rumour,
Sell on fact.

Mad Bull rally will turn out to be a plain bull.

BN to win Sarawak
PKR to win Bukit Selambau
PAS to win Bukit Gantang

Dragonfly said...

Well said Dali. The issues you printed in large size font are simple and glaring. BN will never understand and will never be able to tackle all these issues. It has a lot to do with the guy who didn't need ministerial post but is more than happy to be appointed as an unofficial adviser to the government, aka UMNO.

Dali I suggest you choose an even larger font size to highlight those critical issues again.

elizabeth said...

just today I was pondering on the effect of the byelection on Bursa... If the 2 bukits go to PR, and if the wins are not considered landslide, that would be considered good... hehe...

Now if batang Ai goes to PR as well, I think the market will tremble lah!! With all the instant mee, roti-boy, great efforts of the EC, and questionable poll practices raised by Manfrel, we expect BN would hve no problem winning. So if our expectation is not met.... mati loh!!!

kevin said...

Dilema ... BN win mean more corrupiton but stability... PKR win mean more chaos as the team still very new and unmature...

Regardless, with the current market condition we need the party with experience to give more jobs and prosperity to all Rakyat...

Kingsmen said...

politically the 6 main issues may be the number UNO subject in politically motivated people's mind. However to the average people like myself (no political inclination), our recalcitrant ways of environmental abuse (someone just spitted out of his car window), our unsustainable desires for more spaces, the obvious disrespect for law and order (we dont even stop at traffic lights anymore)....and the list goes long and deep.

What if the practice of CHANGE restarts from the basic observation of rule and order?

What if we just accepts the penalty of our 'sins'?

What if we just DO change and not just SAY it?

Nehemiah said...

Whichever way the bye-elections go, I think PM Najib will surprise on the positive as far as incremental reforms are concerned.

If BN wins big, it would increase the people's anger more if BN takes the win as an endorsement to be as corrupt or power-hungry as before. So he will likely make some reforms, the most important challenge is the revamp/removal of the NEP stigma on the nation.

If PR wins big, he will be under more pressure to reform BN internally, which is also good.

Either way, the stock market is riding on the overseas sentiment and the economy continues to slide.