Thursday, March 19, 2009

Interesting Bets On Current Events


There is a live trading site called Intrade where you can bet and trade on almost any current events. Each contract is marked out of 100, one hundred being 100% certain and zero being zilch chance of happening. I have highlighted some of the more interesting contracts being traded. It also gives a market pulse on what the markets' view are. Of the big US automakers, Chrysler has a 58% chance of going into bankruptcy before the end of the year, while General Motors' odds have improved from 75% to 65% (less likely now but still in danger).

A more interesting contract is Tim Geithner stepping down as Treasury Secretary before the year ends. The odds have shot up to 25%. Steve Jobs is more than likely to leave Apple before the end of the year. As for Osama being captured or neutralised, well it looks like he is very safe.

The last two contracts is for guessing who will win American Idol this year. Adam Lambert was the favorite but Danny Gokey has overtaken that spot now. The rest are all below 10%.



Chrysler to announce before 31 Dec 2009 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

No Graph Available!

General Motors to announce before 31 Dec 2009 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

No Graph Available!

Tim Geithner to depart as Secretary of the Treasury before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009

No Graph Available!

Osama Bin Laden to be captured/neutralised by 30 Jun 2009

No Graph Available!

Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple on/before 31 Dec 2009

No Graph Available!

Adam Lambert to Win
No Graph Available!

Danny Gokey to Win

No Graph Available!



p/s photos: Jamie Yeo

4 comments:

Jasonred79 said...

Hmm... wish I knew about this site long ago... I would have placed heavy bets on USA unemployment going above 9%, at 20 bucks, and would now be collecting 90 bucks... dunno how many times you can place the same bet... very interesting!

value investing in malaysia said...

Hi Dali,

At what level do you think KLCI will end in 2009?

Am doing some survey on market outlook.

Thanks.

Arn said...

Jamie Yeo... you look like my ex-GF and you even have my ex-GF's Chinese name... sigh... the memories, the happy moments, the pain, and then the end... sucks...

WY said...

Some problems of these types of bets are :
1. The market making system may not be transparent.
2. Counterparty risk

Guess this is some kind of swap.