Thursday, March 19, 2009
Interesting Bets On Current Events
There is a live trading site called Intrade where you can bet and trade on almost any current events. Each contract is marked out of 100, one hundred being 100% certain and zero being zilch chance of happening. I have highlighted some of the more interesting contracts being traded. It also gives a market pulse on what the markets' view are. Of the big US automakers, Chrysler has a 58% chance of going into bankruptcy before the end of the year, while General Motors' odds have improved from 75% to 65% (less likely now but still in danger).
A more interesting contract is Tim Geithner stepping down as Treasury Secretary before the year ends. The odds have shot up to 25%. Steve Jobs is more than likely to leave Apple before the end of the year. As for Osama being captured or neutralised, well it looks like he is very safe.
The last two contracts is for guessing who will win American Idol this year. Adam Lambert was the favorite but Danny Gokey has overtaken that spot now. The rest are all below 10%.
Chrysler to announce before 31 Dec 2009 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
General Motors to announce before 31 Dec 2009 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
Tim Geithner to depart as Secretary of the Treasury before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009
Osama Bin Laden to be captured/neutralised by 30 Jun 2009
Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple on/before 31 Dec 2009
Adam Lambert to Win
Danny Gokey to Win
p/s photos: Jamie Yeo