Sunday, January 04, 2009
Some Caveats On KNM
Well, at least The Rock tried to explain his concerns over KNM. This does not represent my view, nor do I agree or disagree with his view as I have no way of ascertaining its validity. Thanks to The Rock. This will serve as a good exercise where a recommendation based on analyst reports and annual reports, and to see whether it can stand up to vicious rumours. I hope the SC will investigate these purported vicious rumours. Investing should never be like this - no one can/should base their investing on "inside gtrack information flow", the general public cannot be disadvantaged by such situations. If we cannot rely on publicly available information, if we cannot rely on analyst reports, if we cannot rely on independent auditors verification, if we cannot rely on them... how else should investors base their investing decisions on? Of course, if management decides to defraud (e.g. Transmile, Enron), it will be difficult to detect. At this point in time, I would still tend to side with my view that KNM is a vicitim of the oil plays being out of favour and that many foreign funds have sold down. All counters have influential substantial shareholders, they backing out is not out of the norm. KNM is also not that political a counter as its business model is acquisition/ EPS accretive strategy.
The Rock has left a new comment on your post "What's Shaking KNM":
I have been following KNM since early 2006. Made some small money. Recently I reviewed it again and asked around - what's happening to the price? Well the inside news is a total shock to me. No analyst or newspaper have a clue to what is really happening in the company or to its financial backers.
While it's probably not going to be a Transmile, but the people[a few of them, not just one] who have dealings with KNM advised me to stay away from the company. One of the worse thing that happened to them was that the promoter's strongest financial backer decided to pull the plug ! That's is when u see the share price started to crash ! It has nothing to do with foreign funds. This is a local guy.
Second is KNM overpaid for Borsig. When a PE firm sells you something you got to ask WHY WHY WHY ? It was done at almost the peak of the oil cycle. Any acquisitions done in 2007 or even 2006 will be costly to the buyers. Look at Rio Tinto now trying to swallow their USD38 bil debt for buying Alcan ! It can actually bring down Rio if they can't get refinancing or the economy gets worse from here.
The 3rd point is I was told KNM is linked to a political figure whose fortune has taken a turn for the worse since the March 8 general election. This point is related to the first point.
Don't ask me to reveal the names of the no.1 and no.3 guys. If you think what I say here is credible - good. If not - it's your problem. I have bought Transmile shares before it crashed and suffered massive losses when the fraud was announced. Lesson learnt : when in doubt - don't touch.
They are so many other clean stocks/companies to buy/invest. Why bother with a stock just because it was the darling of the analysts, whom none have had business dealings with KNM !! My sources are people who actually have had dealings with them. It is not based on newspaper or desktop analysis. You need to have an inside track in the current crisis before you jump in and put your money at risk. The low tide will expose more fraud.
MY advise - wait for a few more months and see if any more funny business surfaces. No point trying to jump in now hoping to catch at the bottom when we just don't know where and when is the bottom ! Just trying to be helpful...caveat emptor.
P/s photo: Amigo Feng