Thursday, January 08, 2009

But She Is Screaming So Loudly

We are in a bear market rally, which kinda just started. One day of bad jobs data and balls also shrink back inside. People start to quote how bad the unemployment data is or will be.

Come on people!!! Do you expect jobs data to be good now, in December, January or even February???

Why do you think equity markets collapsed 6 months back???... precisely because we ALL KNOW jobs and the economy will be really bad in the first and second quarter of 2009 at least. So, what gives???
Use economic data properly, economic data tells you what has just happened and what is happening, not what will be happening.

I am not saying the numbers are not bad, but its way within even the most bearish estimations. Where is US unemployment now, around 6%? Ask any economist where they think unemployment will be peaking before recovering... many have said 7%, 8% and some even 9%... so how to get there without bad jobs data now???

You think the central banks and governments huge fiscal measures and liquidity injections were for fun? They precisely expected this scenario.
Its like you know your wife has been wheeled into labour... midway, you start to tremble and fear and exclaim "but she is screaming so loudly"... duh... she is in labour la, not eating Haagen Das ice cream. Where do you think we are in the economic cycle??? Why act so surprised!?

Economic data is confirmation of what stock markets predicted a few months back. A bear market rally is confirmed by market trading indicators such as VIX, yen rate, ratios of new highs/new lows, corporate bonds/Treasuries spread, average volume buy/sell strength indicators...

Use proper indicators to make proper assessment.
I am of the firm view the bear market rally has just started. Get a hold of yourself, its a bumpy ride but its Space Mountain baby, its fun.

p/s photos: KC Concepcion


Ooi Beng Hooi said...

Dear Dali,

Referring to last paragraph,

"I am of the firm view the bear market rally has just started"

Are you saying bull market or bear market?

Ooi Beng Hooi said...

In last paragraph, you were of firm opinion of bearish market ahead.

However, in your recent posting "Global market prognosis for 2009", you commented that:

I am looking for the Dow to reach 10,000 by February / March 2009 and to go back to 12,000 by June 2009. I cannot safely say what will happen for the second half of 2009. A lot will depend on what the central banks and governments do over the next 6 months. If they play their cards right, I think global equity markets could fully recover by end 2009 and go on a 2-3 year unprecedented bull run.

Pat said...

Another words.. fasten your seatbelts!!!